Doiciméid - Think Tank - Parlaimint na hEorpa

Grinnanailís - Defence financing and spending under the Economic Governance framework - 27-03-2025

Wed, 26 Mar 2025 23:00:00 GMT

This paper covers possible defence financing and spending options under the European economic governance framework by reviewing the proposal for a ReArm Europe plan floated by the President of the Commission Ursula von der Leyen. The paper also analyses flexibilities under the EU budget, EIB and ESM financing while also assessing potential market challenges and public procurement. This paper has been updated with information from the European Commission's White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2030 and related documents published on 19 March 2025.

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Briefing - Outcome of the European Political Community meeting in Oxfordshire, United Kingdom, on 18 July 2024 - 25-07-2024

Wed, 24 Jul 2024 22:00:00 GMT

On 18 July, over 40 European leaders gathered for the fourth meeting of the European Political Community (EPC). It followed a series of international summits in the preceding weeks, including a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit and a G7 summit, plus two European Council meetings. Conflicts on the European continent and in its neighbourhood, as well as the upcoming United States presidential elections and their potential ramifications were most likely at the forefront of leaders' minds. European unity in its support for Ukraine was the overarching theme, alongside three roundtable topics: migration, energy, and defending and securing democracy. The reset of the relationship between the United Kingdom and its European counterparts was also a clear ambition of the newly elected UK government, hosting the event. As with the previous EPC meetings, no concrete deliverables or statements were announced at the end of the summit.

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Sracfhéachaint - EU-US relations - 06-12-2023

Wed, 06 Dec 2023 16:26:05 GMT

Ahead of a crucial election year for the European �Ϸ��վ and the United States (US), �Ϸ��վ takes stock of EU-US relations for the second time in the outgoing legislative term. While �Ϸ��վ's 2021 report elaborated on the priorities for the relaunch of transatlantic ties, the 2023 report sets out recommendations for deepening cooperation on a broad range of foreign, security and defence policy issues. It, inter alia, suggests creating a transatlantic political council and holding annual summits, and calls for a bigger role for parliamentary diplomacy. �Ϸ��վ is expected to debate and vote on the report during the December plenary session.

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Staidéar - EU-Ukraine 2035: Strategic foresight analysis on the future of the EU and Ukraine - 20-09-2023

Tue, 19 Sep 2023 22:00:00 GMT

This analysis looks at the future of the EU and Ukraine, using a time horizon of 2035. It was launched in June 2022 as a Strategic Foresight Conversation, a few months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. The ensuing war has drastically changed all aspects of life in Ukraine, affects the EU in many significant ways and shifted pre-war geopolitical and geo-economic paradigms. The European Council decision of 24 June 2022 to give candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova added to the need for a long-term perspective on EU-Ukraine relations. The analysis is based on foresight methodologies, including a multi-stage stakeholder consultation and scenario building. Four scenarios examine future developments along two main axes: the Ukraine-Russia relationship, addressing the development and possible outcome of the war, characterised by the level of hazard; and the EU-Ukraine relationship, characterised by the level of integration. The resulting policy considerations address four areas of future EU action: firstly, the transition from military support towards a new European security architecture; secondly, the process of EU enlargement, reconstruction and recovery of Ukraine; thirdly, the development of an effective, green and sovereign European Union; and fourthly, continuity and review of EU relations with five countries which are key to the conflict: Russia, Belarus, Türkiye, China and the US.

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Briefing - Latest on Russia’s war on Ukraine [What Think Tanks are thinking] - 14-07-2023

Thu, 13 Jul 2023 22:00:00 GMT

As Ukraine continues its counter-offensive against the Russian invaders, the NATO summit in Vilnius vowed unwavering support for the country, and took decisions to simplify its path towards membership of the Western military alliance. NATO leaders said they would be able to invite Ukraine to join the Alliance once the country meets certain conditions. They declared continued support for Ukraine’s deterrence and defence in the short, medium, and long term, as well as for turning the Comprehensive Assistance Package (CAP) into a multi-year programme for Ukraine. This assistance will help rebuild the Ukrainian security and defence sector and move Ukraine towards full interoperability with NATO. The NATO summit declarations fell short of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s expectations for receiving a clearer path to enter the Alliance. However, he praised NATO’s decision to scrap the need for Kyiv to complete a preparatory Membership Action Plan to join NATO. The Alliance and Ukraine also held the inaugural meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council to manage the relationship, which reaffirmed that 'Ukraine's future is in NATO'. On the summit's side-lines, Group of Seven (G7) developed countries unveiled an international framework to boost Ukraine's long-term security against Russia. A number of other military packages were announced at bilateral meetings between Zelenskyy and individual NATO leaders. This note gathers links to the recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on Russia’s war on Ukraine. Earlier analyses on the war can be found in a previous edition of ‘What Think Tanks are Thinking’. Publications on NATO released ahead of its July summit can be found in another item in the series.

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Briefing - Erdoğan's third term in Türkiye [What Think Tanks are thinking] - 10-07-2023

Sun, 09 Jul 2023 22:00:00 GMT

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won a third term in office in elections in May, after years of growing authoritarianism in his secular Muslim country which is also a NATO member state. His presidential track record includes growing conflict with the European Union and United States, as well as unorthodox economic policies that have recently undermined people's living standards. After his victory in a run-off vote, Erdoğan promised an assertive foreign policy and a return to normalised economic policies. Public finances are currently in tatters after high pre-election spending. Some analysts say this may have helped Erdoğan to win the ballot, along with a lack of independent media. The appointments of liberal economists in the nearly fully reshuffled cabinet have raised hope that Türkiye will return to a more normal monetary policy and try to overhaul its economy, partly with the aim of attracting foreign investors. On the political front, Türkiye continues to block Sweden's accession to NATO, claiming that the Scandinavian country harbours activists which Ankara regards as terrorists. This note gathers links to publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on the implications of Erdoğan's victory. More publications on Türkiye can be found in a previous edition of 'What think tanks are thinking'.

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Sracfhéachaint - Towards NATO's 2023 Vilnius Summit - 07-07-2023

Thu, 06 Jul 2023 22:00:00 GMT

NATO's next summit, to take place from 11 to 12 July 2023, is being hosted by Lithuania, in Vilnius. Among the items topping the agenda will be support for Ukraine – including its eventual accession to the Alliance and security guarantees, NATO's defence plans and budgets, and Sweden's accession. The summit comes amid Russia's ongoing war on Ukraine and a fundamental overhaul of NATO's defence and deterrence framework.

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Briefing - Reducing exposures to third-country central counterparties - 06-07-2023

Wed, 05 Jul 2023 22:00:00 GMT

This briefing provides an initial analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the European Commission's impact assessment (IA) accompanying the above-mentioned proposals, submitted on 7 December 2022 and referred to the European �Ϸ��վ's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON). The initiative – which would modify the existing framework applying to EU central counterparties (CCPs) and market participants using their services – aims to reduce the over reliance of EU financial markets on non-EU CCPs and safeguard financial stability in the EU. In particular, it would review the existing European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) (EU) No 648/2012, which regulates over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives transactions, including measures to limit their risks through central counterparties (CCPs). This initiative, included in the Commission 2022 work programme, would contribute to building a robust EU clearing capacity, make EU capital markets more competitive and resilient, and reinforce the EU's open strategic autonomy.

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Briefing - NATO’s July summit in Vilnius [What Think Tanks are thinking] - 28-06-2023

Tue, 27 Jun 2023 22:00:00 GMT

Leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will meet in Vilnius on 11-12 July against the backdrop of a complex and volatile security environment. Russia’s war on Ukraine, and the latter country’s future membership of the military alliance will dominate the annual summit, according to many public statements. The meeting will aim to send a strong signal of support for Ukraine, reiterating NATO’s open door policy towards the country's membership, increasing military aid, pledging to make the Ukrainian military more interoperable with NATO forces and, possibly, outlining future security guarantees for Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is seeking a commitment that his country will join NATO as soon as the war is over, but only some Allies support that request, while others are more cautious. NATO leaders will discuss creating a new NATO-Ukraine Council, which would boost relations between the two, compared with the current NATO-Ukraine commission. NATO will also address strengthening its eastern flank, updating the Alliance’s current plans to defend the region from possible Russian aggression. NATO will also re-examine its Strategic Concept adopted last year in Madrid, discuss security challenges posed by China, and the required increases in the member states’ defence spending. Allies are expected to press Türkiye to drop its opposition to Sweden’s membership of NATO. NATO countries hope to find a replacement for, or prolong the term of, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who is formally due to step down in September. This note gathers links to the recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on the NATO summit and related issues. Earlier analyses of Russia’s war on Ukraine can be found in a previous edition of the ‘What Think Tanks are Thinking’ series.

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Briefing - Outcome of the European Political Community meeting in Bulboaca, Moldova, on 1 June 2023 - 06-06-2023

Mon, 05 Jun 2023 22:00:00 GMT

On 1 June 2023, Moldova hosted the second meeting of the European Political Community (EPC) in Bulboaca, just a few kilometres from the Ukrainian border. The focus of this informal forum of 48 leaders from across the European continent was clearly more on peace and security – with all participants reiterating their unity in support of Ukraine – and less on energy and interconnectivity, the other topic on the agenda. Discussions took place in plenary and roundtable format, showing continuity in method with the inaugural EPC meeting held in Prague in 2022. Enlargement, although not officially a topic for discussion, was placed at the centre of the debates by the President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, and the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who this time attended the summit in person. The two leaders pleaded for the opening of EU accession negotiations by the end of this year. In addition, Zelenskyy advocated powerfully for a strong signal from NATO at the upcoming summit of the Alliance in Vilnius on 11 July 2023, both regarding Ukraine's accession and concerning security guarantees on the way to membership. This to some extent transformed the meeting into an informal preparatory meeting for the NATO and European Council meetings later this year, touching on and possibly easing potential sensitivities. No summit declaration was adopted, confirming the EPC's informal platform format. A series of side meetings allowed leaders to discuss issues of direct interest to their own countries. Side meetings were also used for mediation purposes in the case of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, and to attempt to put the Pristina-Belgrade dialogue back on track, after the recent spike in violence.

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Briefing - Latest on Russia’s war on Ukraine [What Think Tanks are thinking] - 25-05-2023

Wed, 24 May 2023 22:00:00 GMT

Two anti-Kremlin armed groups, made up of Russian nationals fighting for Kyiv against their compatriots, have claimed they were behind a short incursion into Russian territory, prompting threats from Moscow, as the West pondered further sanctions against Russia and more arms deliveries to Ukraine. Ukraine has denied any role in the raid, while Russia has blamed ‘Ukrainian nationalists’ for the attack, and its Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, has vowed that Moscow will respond to any more cross-border raids swiftly and ‘extremely harshly.’ At the G7 summit of industrialised and democratic nations on 19-21 May, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked for more arms supplies for his country, including F-16 fighter jets. Russia said that the transfer of such planes would raise the question of NATO's role in the 15-month-old military conflict. The US and other countries promised to start training Ukrainian pilots to use F-16s. This note gathers links to the recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on Russia’s war on Ukraine. Earlier analyses of the war can be found in a previous edition of the ‘What Think Tanks are Thinking’ series.

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Sracfhéachaint - A comparative analysis of Article 5 Washington Treaty (NATO) and Article 42(7) TEU (EU) - 09-12-2022

Thu, 08 Dec 2022 23:00:00 GMT

The Russian aggression against Ukraine has highlighted the relative confusion that exists over the obligations that states have under Article 5 of the (NATO) Washington Treaty and Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union. Clarification and explanation of these articles has become particularly urgent as overlap between NATO and EU membership increases, following Finland and Sweden's application to join NATO.

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Briefing - Russia’s war on Ukraine nine months on [What Think Tanks are thinking] - 17-11-2022

Wed, 16 Nov 2022 23:00:00 GMT

Russia has recently launched the heaviest missile barrage against Ukraine since it began its attack on the country nearly nine months ago. This follows the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the east and south, which led to Russia abandoning the southern city of Kherson, the only regional capital it had captured since the February invasion. On 15 November, a missile landed in Poland, killing two and sparking fears that Russia had attacked a NATO country. A NATO and Polish investigation showed that the blast most likely came from a stray rocket of the Ukrainian air defence system. However, the military alliance said Moscow, not Kyiv, was ultimately responsible for the explosion in Poland. At their summit in Bali, G20 leaders issued a closing declaration saying that ‘most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine’, although it acknowledged that ‘there were other views’. This note gathers links to the recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on Russia’s war on Ukraine. Earlier analyses of the war can be found in a previous edition of the ‘What Think Tanks are Thinking’ series.

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Sracfhéachaint - Emerging disruptive technologies in defence - 15-09-2022

Wed, 14 Sep 2022 22:00:00 GMT

Emerging disruptive technologies (EDTs) can potentially revolutionise warfare. The EU and its Member States have recognised the importance of EDTs, launched several initiatives and dedicated substantial funds to EDT research and development (R&D). However, keeping up with China, Russia and the United States (US) in this area will be a challenge.

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Sracfhéachaint - Outcome of the Madrid NATO Summit, June 2022 - 14-07-2022

Wed, 13 Jul 2022 22:00:00 GMT

On 28-30 June 2022, NATO leaders met in Madrid and adopted a new strategic concept, rewriting their assessment of the threat environment in the light of Russia's war on Ukraine. NATO also overhauled its defence and deterrence posture, and officially invited Finland and Sweden to join the Alliance.

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Briefing - NATO and European defence [What Think Tanks are thinking] - 13-07-2022

Tue, 12 Jul 2022 22:00:00 GMT

The thirty NATO member states agreed on 29 June to invite Finland and Sweden to join the Western military alliance, accepting the Nordic countries' accession bids, which came after Russia launched its war on Ukraine nearly five months ago. The June NATO Summit in Madrid also endorsed a new Strategic Concept and branded the Russian Federation as 'the most significant and direct threat to Allies' security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area'. NATO also agreed to boost significantly its defence capabilities and offer more support for Ukraine. This note gathers links to the recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on the NATO Summit and on European defence.

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Grinnanailís - Multilateralism and Democracy. A European �Ϸ��վ perspective - 30-06-2022

Wed, 29 Jun 2022 22:00:00 GMT

This analysis looks into the complex relationship between two trends in international governance: an increase in multilateral arrangements between countries in order to govern internationally on the one hand, and a lack of democratic control over the decisions taken by multilateral organisations or conferences on the other. Multilateralism in the modern sense refers to an international mode of operation involving peaceful negotiations and diplomacy, also referred to as a ‘rules-based international order’ or ‘rules-based multilateralism’. Several European countries have recently launched initiatives in support of multilateralism, in reaction to the increasingly unilateral behaviour of states undermining the existing rules-based international order. Apart from the European Union, no other multilateral organisation has a parliamentary body with the competence to block or amend its decisions, which indicates that there is a democratic deficit in these multilateral organisations. An initial response to such a democratic deficit is the involvement of national parliaments in international decision-making. This is known as ‘parliamentary diplomacy’. Secondly, the involvement of civil society in international decision-making through protests, petitions, consultations or participation can also enhance democracy. Thirdly, the organisation of national referenda on international decisions can be used by national governments or citizens’ initiatives to increase democratic legitimacy. Fourthly, a lack of democracy at international level can also be countered by creating an ‘alliance of democracies’, aimed at multilateral cooperation between democratic countries rather than the democratisation of multilateral organisations. These are mostly alliances of Western countries, which risks emphasising the differences between West and East or North and South. Three short case studies of parliamentary diplomacy with the strong involvement of the European �Ϸ��վ (the �Ϸ��վary Conference on the World Trade Organization (WTO), delegations to the Conferences of Parties of climate change agreements and the NATO �Ϸ��վary Assembly) show that enhancing multilateral democracy is not the only aim of parliamentary diplomacy and that each case reveals a different mix between the ‘parliamentary’ aspect of democratisation and the ‘diplomacy’ aspects of information exchange or influencing.

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Briefing - Treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons – First meeting of States Parties - 20-06-2022

Sun, 19 Jun 2022 22:00:00 GMT

From 21 to 23 June 2022, the 61 States Parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) will meet for the first time. Russia's threat to use nuclear weapons in the context of its war on Ukraine has given new relevance – and some will argue urgency – to the initiative launched a decade ago to prohibit nuclear weapons. The TPNW entered into force on 22 January 2021. On that day, nuclear weapons development, testing, production, possession, stockpiling, use and threat of use, as well as the stationing or deployment of another country's nuclear weapons on a state party's national territory became prohibited under international law. The TPNW has been hailed as historic by supporters of the initiative, which has gained ground in recent years, to rid the world of the most destructive weapon known to humankind. The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), which spearheaded these efforts, was awarded the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize. Supporters hope that the TPNW will strengthen the international legal framework and gradually advance the political norm against possession and use of nuclear weapons. However, opponents of the Treaty argue that the conditions for disarmament do not currently exist and that promoters of the TPNW fail to recognise this. Arguably, their position has been strengthened by recent developments. The nine states known to have military nuclear programmes have not signed the TPNW. Nor have Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which re-confirmed its commitment to nuclear deterrence in 2016. This raises doubts about the impact of this new instrument and its ability to create normative values. Most EU Member States, 21 of which are members of NATO, oppose the TPNW, and only three have ratified it. �Ϸ��վ has noted that the TPNW provided evidence of the desire to achieve the objective of a nuclear weapons-free world. This is an updated version of an earlier briefing, from January 2021.

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Briefing - The European Council and defence cooperation: Overview of debates and way forward - 30-05-2022

Sun, 29 May 2022 22:00:00 GMT

European defence cooperation has been a 'rolling' item on the European Council's agenda for the past decade and will continue to feature high as the new Strategic Compass is being implemented. Russia's war on Ukraine has altered the European security architecture, accelerating cooperation in defence, a policy area where the European Council has shown both commitment, by issuing periodic policy guidelines and following up on them, and continuity, by maintaining the topic on its agenda on a regular basis. With the adoption of the Versailles declaration of 10 11 March 2022, EU leaders positioned investment, capabilities, the defence industry and the defence market at the core of their current debate on European defence cooperation.

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Sracfhéachaint - Russia’s war on Ukraine: NATO response - 22-04-2022

Thu, 21 Apr 2022 22:00:00 GMT

NATO has condemned Russia’s war on Ukraine in the strongest possible terms, and calls it ‘the biggest security threat in a generation’. The Alliance calls on Russia to cease hostilities immediately, withdraw all its forces from Ukraine and work towards a peaceful diplomatic solution. To avoid direct confrontation with Russia, NATO has made clear that it will not deploy forces to Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, nor will it enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine. The delivery of weapons and equipment to Ukraine (by individual NATO Allies) and the imposition of unprecedented sanctions are being organised predominantly outside the NATO framework. In order to deter further Russian aggression and reassure its Allies, NATO has substantially enhanced its own deterrence posture, with large deployments of troops and equipment to the eastern flank of the Alliance's territory.

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Sracfhéachaint - Russia's war on Ukraine: The EU's financing of military assistance to Ukraine - 30-03-2022

Tue, 29 Mar 2022 22:00:00 GMT

In an unprecedented and unanimous reaction to the Russian war on Ukraine that began on 24 February 2022, the EU swiftly decided to provide €500 million, and then rapidly a further €500 million, from the European Peace Facility to fund and coordinate EU military assistance and to deliver military (including lethal) equipment to Ukraine. The Council had already agreed €31 million for non-lethal assistance to Ukraine on 2 December 2021. For the first time in its history, the EU is now using a dedicated, although off-budget, tool to finance – but not to deliver, with that responsibility falling on Member States alone – lethal military equipment for a third country. This is an update of an 'At a glance' note published on 11 March 2022.

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Sracfhéachaint - Russia's war on Ukraine: The digital dimension - 16-03-2022

Tue, 15 Mar 2022 23:00:00 GMT

While Russia deploys cyber warfare and disinformation strategies in its war on Ukraine, social platforms, and telecommunication, media and internet operators are playing an important role in relaying information on the war and shaping public opinion. The EU has taken a number of immediate, practical, measures to support Ukraine, and is contemplating further action to build the resilience of its communications infrastructures, strengthen cybersecurity and counter disinformation.

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Sracfhéachaint - Russia's war on Ukraine: Military balance of power - 04-03-2022

Thu, 03 Mar 2022 23:00:00 GMT

Although Russia's invasion of Ukraine began on 24 February 2022, it was preceded by long and repetitive military build-ups at the border, as well as by joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises on Belarusian territory. While Ukraine defends its territory with a much more motivated army, it is nevertheless smaller than and not as well equipped as the Russian forces. Military aid is being provided by EU Member States and other like-minded countries, including the United States, Canada and United Kingdom.

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Sracfhéachaint - Is Russia planning a new conflict in Ukraine? - 15-12-2021

Tue, 14 Dec 2021 23:00:00 GMT

For the second time in 2021, a massive Russian military build-up and increasingly hostile rhetoric point to a planned attack on Ukraine. Whereas the previous build-up ended in April with the withdrawal of most troops, this time the signs are more worrying. Russia is demanding a halt to NATO activity in and around Ukraine. The US and the EU are threatening harsh new sanctions against Russia if the attack goes ahead.

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Sracfhéachaint - Who does what in security and defence? EU-US Explainer - 29-09-2021

Tue, 28 Sep 2021 22:00:00 GMT

Geopolitical competition between rival nations and a complex security environment are threatening some of the core values of the transatlantic alliance. The institutions responsible for implementing EU and US security and defence policies aim to protect civilians and to promote rules-based conduct in external action. Against this backdrop, both the EU and US are undertaking significant strategic realignments, as the US shifts from counter-insurgency operations to competing with near-peer powers and the EU moves towards the objective of a defence union and strategic autonomy. Despite the historical transatlantic security and defence relationship, the institutional landscapes of the EU and the US are distinct and complex. This document seeks to give an overview of who does what in security and defence institutions on both sides of the Atlantic.

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