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Towards renewed and beneficial EU enlargement

Briefing 10-03-2025

The EU's integration, from the establishment of the European Economic Community in 1957 to the welcoming of 13 European countries in the 2004-2013 period, has been lauded for boosting economic development and living standards across the continent, bringing dynamism and new perspectives as well as enhancing Europe's geopolitical weight on the global stage. This economic development has been accompanied by dramatic improvements in life expectancy, gender equality and protection of the environment. The EU enlargement process has been a key driver of these results by expanding the single market for trade, competition, freedom of movement and investment. This briefing constructs three scenarios for the EU's future enlargement (2024-2035). The analysis finds that an EU enlargement with modest convergence (Scenario 2) could raise the EU's gross domestic product (GDP) by 8 % by 2035 compared with the status quo (Scenario 1). In an ideal state scenario, with an ambitious approach to enlargement (Scenario 3), the EU's GDP could rise by up to 24 %. The analysis finds that all EU countries would experience greater GDP growth as a result of EU enlargement, albeit of differing magnitudes. Such growth, particularly if the enlargement process is done in a smart way, could be broad-based and be reflected also in higher living standards, lower global greenhouse gas emissions and greater defence readiness for all countries. Enlargement could also promote EU competitiveness, sovereignty and shared exploitation of critical materials, and help to develop access to modern warfare and stronger defence capacity. The strengthening of democratic institutions, the reinforcement of the European pillar of social rights to boost living standards, and EU institutional reform are key elements in realising the full potential offered by enlargement.