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This briefing assesses the economic, financial, and monetary implications of the tariffs announced by the Trump administration for the EU. Starting with an overview of US measures and EU countermeasures, it analyses the impact on the EU economy across sectors and member states, explains monetary policy challenges for the ECB, and discusses strategic options for European policymakers. As the situation evolves rapidly, the assessment provided in this briefing reflects information available as of 29 ...

Following increasing pressure from members of his own party and a period of low opinion poll ratings, Canadian Prime Minister (PM) Justin Trudeau announced his resignation from the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada on 6 January 2025. Mark Carney, his successor as prime minister of Canada, and new leader of the Liberal Party, has called a snap parliamentary election for 28 April. This year's election will mark a decade of Liberal Party rule in Canada, a period with significant political, economic ...

This paper outlines the European Union鈥檚 institutional framework for defining and executing an active euro exchange rate policy, against the backdrop of a potential policy shift by the United States. It outlines the emerging US debate on linking exchange rate policy with trade and security objectives and provides a background on past currency interventions by US and other central banks such as the Plaza Accord. The final part opens a discussion over the functioning and limits of the EU鈥檚 legal framework ...

When Donald Trump was elected President of the United States (US) for the second time in 2024, the world knew that tariffs would again be the US trade policy instrument of choice. Two months into his second term, the President announced universal tariffs on aluminium and steel; a month later, on cars and car parts; and on 2 April 2025, reciprocal tariffs ranging from 11 % to 50 % on imports from countries running a trade in goods deficit with the US, and universal tariffs of 10 % on imports from ...

Based on its Treaties, the European Union (EU) has developed a multifaceted external action policy, and is seen as an important actor far beyond its borders. Through its institutions and Member States, the EU is active in international trade, humanitarian assistance, economic, financial, and technical and development cooperation, as well as through its common foreign and security policy (CFSP) and common security and defence policy (CSDP). Increasingly, the external dimension of internal EU policies ...

The US Trump administration has set its sights on Ukraine's vast mineral resources, and proposed a deal: to secure a portion of Ukraine's rare earths in exchange for US support in the war against the Russian aggressor. Ukraine is a candidate for EU membership, and an earlier 2021 strategic partnership means the EU also has a stake in the future of Ukraine's mineral sector. This briefing analyses the US and EU positions, to shed light on the potential future of rare earth mining in Ukraine.

The energy system is a cornerstone of the United States (US) economy and competitiveness. The country's energy mix in 2022 was well-diversified, consisting of two thirds natural gas and oil, with the rest almost equal proportions of coal, nuclear and renewables. By using its vast reserves in fossil fuels and applying new extraction technologies, the US has managed to increase its fossil fuel production significantly over the past 10 years and, since 2019, it has become a net energy exporter for the ...

In this paper, we propose and analyse four scenarios of a second Trump administration鈥檚 economic policy and its impact on Europe, ranging all the way from moderate tariffs to full trade war, a full multilateral breakdown with the US leaving the IMF down to a more cooperative exchange rate realignment agreement. We assess two trade scenarios quantitatively and outline broader policy shocks and their economic consequences. Our findings highlight significant challenges for the ECB, requiring responses ...

Were the US to impose large and lasting tariffs on its imports from the EU, the effect on the euro area (EA) would be substantial and far-reaching. We expect the direct impact to be inflationary in the US and contractionary on EA aggregate demand and output. The indirect impact through an appreciation of the dollar (partly already occurred) tends to transfer inflation from the US to Europe. The ECB should be mindful that both deflationary and inflationary influences may ensue, and be ready to adjust ...

This paper examines the impact of US protectionist trade policies on the euro area economy, focusing on macroeconomic and financial repercussions. While direct tariff effects are mitigated by exchange rate adjustments and ECB policies, broader risks arise from global trade disruptions and financial contagion. Increased risk premia on US bonds elevate European financing costs, posing fiscal challenges. We highlight the importance of trade diversification, innovation incentives, and prudent monetary ...