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Monetary Policy Expert Panel Quarterly Survey: 2025 Q1
This paper presents the aggregated results of a survey conducted among Members of the Monetary Policy Expert Panel (MPEP) ahead of the March 2025 Monetary Dialogue with ECB President Christine Lagarde. The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the survey respondents and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Ϸվ, the Members of the ECON Committee or the EGOV Unit.
2025 European Semester for economic policy coordination
For the first time in four years, EU fiscal rules are in effect. The first implementation cycle of the new economic governance framework, centred on country-specific, medium-term fiscal plans steers multilateral budget surveillance, and aims to coordinate Member States' economic policies. The renewed emphasis on European defence capabilities has sparked debates on potential exemption of defence spending from fiscal rules. Against this backdrop, the European Ϸվ report on the European Semester ...
State aid assessment: Final judgment on Apple
In September 2024, a Court of Justice (ECJ) judgment, rendered in appeal, concluded a 10-year State aid procedure on Ireland's past tax rulings relating to Apple. The ECJ judgment did not go as anticipated. In addition, the over €13 billion in aid to be recovered from Apple eclipsed the grounds for the decision, which derive from the specific historical structure of the business and national provisions.
Assessing the Debt Sustainability Analysis Methodology in the EU’s New Economic Governance Framework
This in-depth analysis reviews the Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) that guides the implementation of the new Economic Governance Framework. It evaluates the adequacy of the methodology, with a focus on the changes introduced in the DSA to make it fit for the multi-annual character of the framework. While the DSA is not far from the state-of-art, the way the framework handles uncertainty is suboptimal. The study notes a few other areas where the analysis could be improved, namely potential output ...
Economic Dialogue with the European Commission on the launch of the 2025 European Semester cycle
Executive Vice-President Mînzatu and Commissioner Dombrovskis have been invited to an Economic Dialogue on the launch of the 2025 European Semester for economic policy coordination, in line with the relevant EU law. This briefing note covers the main elements of the 2025 European Semester Package proposed by the Commission, notably the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure, the Joint Employment Report, the Euro Area policy recommendations and on-going work to strengthen the global competitiveness of ...
Implementation of the reformed Stability and Growth Pact
The autumn 2024 (and winter 2025) fiscal surveillance has been marked by the first implementation cycle of the reformed EU economic governance framework. It has included the assessments and the adoption of the first set of national medium-term fiscal-structural plans (see Section 3 and Annex 1 and 2 of this briefing), the assessments of the 2025 Draft Budgetary Plans of euro area Member States (see Section 4), and Council recommendations to bring an end to their excessive deficit situations and ...
Taxation's impact on gender equality in the EU
Equality between men and women is one of the key foundational principles of the European Union. Despite much progress, however, significant gaps persist between men and women regarding employment opportunities and income levels. Taxation can either mitigate or exacerbate these gender inequalities. On 13 January 2025, the European Ϸվ's Subcommittee on Tax Matters (FISC) is due to hold a public hearing on the topic.
Debt Sustainability Analysis Methodology in the EU's New Economic Governance Framework: An assessment
This paper discusses issues with using a DSA framework as a fiscal rule anchor. It introduces key concepts to guide the reader's understanding and highlights concerns about numerous assumptions that are inevitable in DSA calculation. The paper highlights structural issues, including asymmetry in how megatrends of aging, environmental change and a changing security and defence needs are incorporated into the framework.
Taxation measures to support people with disabilities in the EU
Around 100 million people in the EU– or 1 in 4 adults – have some form of disability. Addressing both fiscal support and public service accessibility for people with disabilities is crucial for a more inclusive and equitable tax system across the EU. On 3 December 2024, the European Ϸվ's Subcommittee on Tax Matters (FISC) will host a public hearing on this topic as part of the European Ϸվ's Disability Rights Week.
Economic Outlook Quarterly: A story of contrasts
The current economic context is a story of contrasts: the labour market continues to exceed expectations, with record employment, while inflation is nearing the 2 % target; meanwhile, subdued growth momentum is fuelling concern over the sustainability of high public debt. Despite extremely challenging circumstances, the EU economy achieved an anticipated soft landing, not least thanks to fiscal support measures at national and EU level. However, factors weighing on economic growth, estimated at 1.5 ...