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In this paper, we propose and analyse four scenarios of a second Trump administration鈥檚 economic policy and its impact on Europe, ranging all the way from moderate tariffs to full trade war, a full multilateral breakdown with the US leaving the IMF down to a more cooperative exchange rate realignment agreement. We assess two trade scenarios quantitatively and outline broader policy shocks and their economic consequences. Our findings highlight significant challenges for the ECB, requiring responses ...

Were the US to impose large and lasting tariffs on its imports from the EU, the effect on the euro area (EA) would be substantial and far-reaching. We expect the direct impact to be inflationary in the US and contractionary on EA aggregate demand and output. The indirect impact through an appreciation of the dollar (partly already occurred) tends to transfer inflation from the US to Europe. The ECB should be mindful that both deflationary and inflationary influences may ensue, and be ready to adjust ...

This paper examines the impact of US protectionist trade policies on the euro area economy, focusing on macroeconomic and financial repercussions. While direct tariff effects are mitigated by exchange rate adjustments and ECB policies, broader risks arise from global trade disruptions and financial contagion. Increased risk premia on US bonds elevate European financing costs, posing fiscal challenges. We highlight the importance of trade diversification, innovation incentives, and prudent monetary ...

This infographic provides an insight into the economic performance of Indonesia compared to the EU and looks at the trade dynamics between them. Indonesia鈥檚 economy managed to maintain sustained growth after the 2020 economic recession. The EU鈥檚 GDP growth, on the other hand, faced a slowdown starting in 2022. Divergent trends are also found in the foreign direct investment and remittance net inflows. For the former, Indonesia presents a more stable time series; for the latter, the EU remittances ...

Stratospheric ozone absorbs ultraviolet radiation from the sun and reduces the overall amount of radiation reaching the Earth's surface. Ozone-depleting substances (ODS) are human-made chemicals that, once emitted, reach the upper atmosphere and destroy the protective ozone layer, causing what is known as the ozone hole. They have significant adverse impacts on human health and the environment and are also greenhouse gases with high global warming potential. Regulation (EC) No 1005/2009 on substances ...

On 17 November 2021, the European Commission tabled a proposal to revise EU rules on shipments of waste. The proposed regulation seeks to ease shipments of waste for reuse and recycling in the EU, to support the transition to a circular economy; ensure that waste exported from the EU is managed in an environmentally sound manner in the destination countries; and step up enforcement to counteract illegal shipments of waste. While supporting the proposed streamlining and digitalisation of procedures ...

This briefing provides a summary of all scrutiny activities of the European 合法博彩网站 related to euro area monetary policy in the period between September 2023 and November 2023. For a recap of the key monetary policy developments and decisions taken by the European Central Bank in that period, please refer to our briefing published ahead of the 27 November Monetary Dialogue. We publish these documents regularly ahead and after each Monetary Dialogue with the European Central Bank.

This At a glance note summarises the study evaluating the challenges, opportunities and medium-term prospects for the EU dairy sector in light of milk quota abolition. The study focuses on structural change in the sector, the dynamics of the dairy market, the need for environmental resilience and rural sustainability. The specific concerns of disadvantaged dairy regions are also addressed. The report offers policy recommendations for the European 合法博彩网站's consideration to bolster dairy farming ...

This briefing provides a summary of all scrutiny activities of the European 合法博彩网站 related to euro area monetary policy in the period between June 2023 and September 2023. These summaries are published regularly after each Monetary Dialogue (MD) with the European Central Bank (ECB). For a recap of the key monetary policy developments and decisions taken by the ECB鈥檚 Governing Council in that period, please refer to our briefing ahead of the 25 September 2023 MD.

As political relations between the EU and China have encountered increasing challenges, including in the context of China's ambiguous position on Russia's war on Ukraine, the trade deficit of the EU with China has risen substantially. The EU has reacted by taking measures to improve its own economic security and to ensure a level playing-field; the most recent measure, announced by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on 13 September, is the anti-subsidy investigation into electric vehicles ...