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Recovery and Resilience Dialogue with the European Commission 10 February 2025
Executive Vice-President Fitto and Commissioner Dombrovskis are invited to the 17th Recovery and Resilience Dialogue (RRD) under the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) Regulation, scheduled for 10 February 2025. The previous RRD took place on 16 September 2024.
Management of debt liabilities in the EU budget under the post-2027 MFF
The EU's debt stock reached EUR 547 billion by the end of September 2024 and is expected to increase by an additional EUR 448 billion under current commitments. Of this total, EUR 421 billion will ultimately finance grants, with the interest and principal repayments to be made jointly by EU countries through the EU budget. The remaining amount will finance loans to countries, which will be serviced as those countries repay their loans. The interest rate risk for the 2028-2034 MFF is expected to remain ...
Do "white knights" make excessive profits in bank resolution?
This study looks at potential windfall profits for the four banking acquisitions in 2023. Based on accounting figures, an FT article states that a total of USD 44bn was left on the table. We see accounting figures as a misleading analysis. By estimating marked-based cumulative abnormal returns (CAR), we find positive abnormal returns in all four cases which when made quantifiable, are around half of the FT’s accounting figures. Furthermore, we argue that transparent auctions with enough bidders ...
Lettura da parte del Parlamento del bilancio dell'UE per il 2024
Nel corso della tornata di ottobre II il Parlamento è chiamato ad approvare la propria posizione sugli emendamenti alla posizione del Consiglio sul progetto di bilancio dell'UE per il 2024. La commissione per i bilanci (BUDG) ha allineato la propria lettura del bilancio per il 2024 con l'invito a una revisione del quadro finanziario pluriennale (QFP) 2021-2027. La commissione BUDG annulla tutti i tagli proposti dal Consiglio al progetto della Commissione e propone un notevole aumento degli impegni ...
Obbligazioni verdi europee
Per sostenere i progetti climatici e ambientali, nel luglio 2021 la Commissione europea ha proposto un regolamento relativo a una norma per le obbligazioni verdi europee, destinata a definire una norma ufficiale dell'UE per le obbligazioni verdi allineata alla tassonomia dell'UE, sulla base di un sistema di registrazione e un quadro di vigilanza per i revisori esterni. La votazione sull'accordo politico provvisorio tra il Parlamento e il Consiglio è prevista nel corso della tornata di ottobre I.
The rising cost of European Union borrowing and what to do about it
The interest rate cost of EU borrowing for non-repayable support, which lies with the EU budget, could be twice as high as what was initially estimated at the start of the EU’s 2021-2027 budget cycle. This Bruegel paper finds that the European Commission’s issuance strategy can still be improved to reduce EU borrowing costs at the margin. It should also continue to work on building market infrastructures for EU bonds. Moreover if EU countries want to reap the full benefits of EU borrowing, some political ...
Quantitative tightening in homeopathic doses
The ECB is now planning to run down its vast bond holdings acquired under the asset purchase programme ----- a ‘‘quantitative tightening’’. However, the ECB is not contemplating selling any bonds, only not reinvesting part of what is coming due. Under this approach, the continuing expansionary effect of keeping vast holdings remains large and is likely to complicate the fight against inflation. The ECB currently has two, fungible, policy instruments (policy rates and balance sheet operations), which ...
ECB stepping on the brake(s)
Confronted with a historic inflation surge, the ECB steps on the brake(s). While interest rate hikes are its primary tool, unconventional tools are also adjusted to strengthen the brake intensity. Quantitative tightening will reduce the stock of bonds in a slow process. The change from a scarce to an abundant reserve system will prevail. In contrast to previous monetary tightening cycles, in an abundant reserve system huge interest expenses result in central bank losses and fiscal costs for the coming ...
QT in the euro area
The Eurosystem is now reducing its bond holdings. Provided this is carried out in a measured way, it should not have a big impact on financial conditions or cause financial instability. The reduction is the correct policy because of legal problems with the Eurosystem owning so many sovereign bonds and because it provides space to implement the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) effectively. On the costs of operating a large balance sheet, the ECB should re-introduce its tiering system for compensation ...
Evolving key risks in the banking sector and related priorities for the SSM
While greater inflation may have led to some positive “first-round” effects for banks, several negative “second-round” impacts may occur, including: i) an increase in credit risk, affecting both families and companies, especially “heavy energy users”; ii) a drop in the value of fixed-rate assets held by lenders, including sovereign bonds; iii) liquidity pressures due to the ECB’s recent decision to increase the cost of its outstanding 3-year facilities and to greater competition for retail deposits ...