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Assessing the Debt Sustainability Analysis Methodology in the EU’s New Economic Governance Framework

Analiżi fil-Fond 26-11-2024

This paper argues that the debt sustainability methodology in the EU new economic governance framework, while analytically sound, faces major implementation challenges. Primary among these is the reliance on a non-observable variable (the volatility of future debt-to-GDP ratios) that must be estimated based on ad hoc procedures that may affect significantly the required decline in the debt ratio after the end of the adjustment period and, hence, the primary surplus that a Member State needs to achieve during the adjustment period.