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In this paper, we propose and analyse four scenarios of a second Trump administration鈥檚 economic policy and its impact on Europe, ranging all the way from moderate tariffs to full trade war, a full multilateral breakdown with the US leaving the IMF down to a more cooperative exchange rate realignment agreement. We assess two trade scenarios quantitatively and outline broader policy shocks and their economic consequences. Our findings highlight significant challenges for the ECB, requiring responses ...

This paper presents the aggregated results of a survey conducted among Members of the Monetary Policy Expert Panel (MPEP) ahead of the March 2025 Monetary Dialogue with ECB President Christine Lagarde. The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the survey respondents and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European 合法博彩网站, the Members of the ECON Committee or the EGOV Unit.

This briefing report evaluates the ECB's monetary policy in a context of declining inflation and stagnant growth. Inflation risks have been averted and, after a period of relatively tight policy in 2024, benchmark comparisons indicate that the current interest rate is consistent with the ECB's mandate. The prevailing economic and inflation outlook supports further rate cuts. However, the high level of economic policy uncertainty necessitates cautious adjustments. Moreover, official ECB communications ...

In this issue... 鈼� US President Trump starts enacting his economic policy agenda and threatens the EU with tariffs. 鈼� Headline inflation falls to 2.4% as underlying indicators ease. 鈼� ECB reduces key policy rate by 25 bps. 鈼� The euro continues to strengthen against the dollar amid growing uncertainty on US鈥檚 tariffs. 鈼� The Fed keeps rate unchanged among economic uncertainty while challenges to independence arise. 鈼� ECB reckons new US approach to cryptos and CBDCs strengthens the case for ...

The euro area experienced an unprecedented surge of inflation in 2021 and 2022 followed by a decline in 2023 and 2024. The ECB raised policy rates too late. Simple rules would have prescribed an earlier response. The policy easing since summer 2024, however, is quite in line with such rules. This experience provides a number of lessons that could lead to improvements in the policy strategy that is currently under review. The current level of policy rates appears appropriate. However, there are some ...

ECON on 19 February 2025 - Paschal Donohoe is attending his seventh Economic Dialogue in the ECON Committee since being elected as President of the Eurogroup in July 2020 and the first one during the 10th parliamentary term. His previous Economic Dialogue took place on 29 June 2023. This briefing covers the following issues: latest economic developments (Section 1); the 2025 Euro Area Recommendation (Section 2); Transparency of the work of the Eurogroup (Section 3) and Completing the EMU, with a ...

This briefing paper was prepared ahead of the Monetary Dialogue between the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) and the European Central Bank (ECB) President. It provides a summary of key monetary policy developments and decisions taken by the ECB鈥檚 Governing Council.

The recent high inflation affects EU Member States differently. It is therefore important to quantify country-specific inflation impacts in regard to the implementation of the EU budget. This in-depth study focuses on country-specific inflation effects regarding research expenditures, Cohesion Policy, the Common Agricultural Policy, and NextGenerationEU. Moreover, policy options and recommendations at EU level to prevent adverse effects of future inflation shocks on the EU budget are identified and ...

In this paper, the ECB monetary policy stance is assessed by comparing the recent tightening cycle (2022-today) with the two preceding ones, which took place in 2000-2001 and in 2006-2008. Interest rates, quantitative indicators and monetary conditions indices (MCIs) are used for this purpose. The main finding is that at the peak of the latest tightening cycle, the ECB monetary policy stance was no more restrictive than it was at the peak of the two preceding ones; actually, probably less. This contrasts ...

The paper seeks to assess the current monetary policy stance of the European Central Bank (ECB). To do so, it analyses factors driving the inflation dynamics in the euro area (EA) and their potential persistence, drawing comparisons with the inflation drivers and policy response in the United States (US). Given the prominent role played by the energy-price increase in EA inflation and the differential exposure of EA Member States, the paper analyses the country-level inflation dynamics in response ...