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EU Heads of State or Government will hold their first discussion on the post-2027 multiannual financial framework (MFF) at the European Council meeting on 20-21 March 2025. Since 1988, when an interinstitutional agreement introduced the first binding MFF, the European Council has played a central role in the process leading to its adoption. In 1992, the Lisbon Treaty established a new procedure whereby the MFF would come into being through the adoption of a regulation. The European Council was not ...

This in-depth analysis reviews the Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) that guides the implementation of the new Economic Governance Framework. It evaluates the adequacy of the methodology, with a focus on the changes introduced in the DSA to make it fit for the multi-annual character of the framework. While the DSA is not far from the state-of-art, the way the framework handles uncertainty is suboptimal. The study notes a few other areas where the analysis could be improved, namely potential output ...

The adoption of the next multiannual financial framework (MFF) for the period from 2028 will be one of the second von der Leyen Commission's defining projects. Striking a delicate balance between the EU's growing financial needs and many Member States' reluctance to shoulder higher payments to the EU has always been a challenging task. However, never before have the EU's many financial needs been greater – and, at the same time, Member States' budgets are under heavy constraints. On the expenditure ...

The original full study examines performance-based budgeting (PB) and mainstreaming, two relatively novel approaches to the governance of public expenditure which have become increasingly used in EU spending programmes. The two approaches have certain common features but differ in focus. To inform debate around the next multi-annual financial framework (MFF), this study assesses how the two have functioned in practice, seeking to identify shortcomings and recommend possible remedies.

Gender-responsive budgeting is a practical tool that can be applied systematically throughout the budgetary cycle to ensure that resources are distributed equitably and that spending supports gender equality. As well as helping to ensure that budgets deliver maximum value for citizens, gender-responsive budgeting supports other policy objectives connected with efficiency, transparency and accountability. Under the Treaties, the EU has an obligation to promote gender equality and a firm basis to use ...

This study examines the implications of future enlargements for the next MFF. It reviews adjustments made to the EU budget during past enlargements and estimates the budgetary costs of the accession of all current candidate and potential candidate countries (excluding Türkiye) under three alternative scenarios which distinguish between the number of enlargement countries and the timing of enlargement. It then provides policy recommendations for adapting the next MFF to enlargement. The study was ...

Performance-based budgeting by focusing on ‘what works’, as opposed to whether money has been properly spent, aims to improve the quality of public spending. This study examines how successful the approach has been in the EU, looking at the multi-annual financial framework and the Recovery and Resilience Facility. The study looks, in particular, at the role of the European Ϸվ and how it could be enhanced, drawing on lessons from use of the approach in national settings.

This paper studies the implications for the European Central Bank (ECB) of the new EU fiscal framework, focusing on five aspects where monetary and fiscal policies intersect: (1) fiscal dominance over monetary policy; (2) fiscal drag created by the new framework; (3) moral hazard created by very low interest rates; (4) the effectiveness of the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), and (5) the impact of the new framework on green public investment. This document was provided by the Economic ...

The EU's general budget for 2025 is scheduled for adoption during the European Ϸվ's November III plenary session. Ϸվ is due to vote on the provisional agreement reached with the Council on 16 November 2024 during budgetary conciliation; the Council has to approve the provisional agreement formally before Ϸվ puts it to the vote. The agreed 2025 budget sets commitment appropriations at €199.4 billion and payments at €155.2 billion, including special instruments.

EU contingent financial liabilities

Šٳܻ徱Ჹ 14-11-2024

Contingent liabilities for the EU budget have grown considerably in their magnitude and their complexity and will continue to increase under the MFF 2021-2027. This paper tracks their evolution, explains the risks they might impose on the EU budget, and analyses the risk management practices to address them. We forecast total contingent liabilities will more than double by 2027, reaching EUR 612 billion. This will be driven mainly by RRF loans and, to a lesser extent, by financial support to Ukraine ...