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Ukraine is the second largest country on the European continent after Russia. Its oil, coal and gas reserves, as well as its geostrategic position, ensured its important role in energy trade, both during the Soviet Union and after its collapse. However, Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine (since 2014), followed by a full-scale war of aggression against the country, have had severe human and economic impacts. In the energy area, for example, Russia's strategy has been to weaponise (e.g. the occupation ...

The six countries that make up the region known as the Western Balkans differ in terms of size, population, economy, energy mix and energy import dependency. At the same time, they share common elements because of their geographical proximity, and 鈥� in some cases 鈥� common policies adopted in the past. An example is their ageing infrastructure dating back to the 1970s, which was damaged during the conflicts in former Yugoslavia. Another common element (except for Albania) is their reliance on solid ...

The energy system is a cornerstone of the United States (US) economy and competitiveness. The country's energy mix in 2022 was well-diversified, consisting of two thirds natural gas and oil, with the rest almost equal proportions of coal, nuclear and renewables. By using its vast reserves in fossil fuels and applying new extraction technologies, the US has managed to increase its fossil fuel production significantly over the past 10 years and, since 2019, it has become a net energy exporter for the ...

In 1947, drawing on the lessons learnt from the global economic damage caused by trade protectionism and tariff wars prior to World War II, 23 countries, including the United States, initiated the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) as a platform for multilateral negotiations aimed at liberalising and boosting global trade. To this end, GATT members - and since 1995 the members of the then newly created World Trade Organization (WTO) - gradually reduced their import tariffs and tariff quotas ...

In this paper, we propose and analyse four scenarios of a second Trump administration鈥檚 economic policy and its impact on Europe, ranging all the way from moderate tariffs to full trade war, a full multilateral breakdown with the US leaving the IMF down to a more cooperative exchange rate realignment agreement. We assess two trade scenarios quantitatively and outline broader policy shocks and their economic consequences. Our findings highlight significant challenges for the ECB, requiring responses ...

The repeated crises of recent years, including the COVID pandemic and the Russian war on Ukraine, have disrupted trade relations in many ways. Competition on global markets has become fiercer and the rules-based multilateral order established after World War II is increasingly challenged. The tariffs imposed by the new United States (US) administration are adding to the uncertainty. Trade in goods and services accounts for 22.4 % of EU GDP 鈥� the EU is the world's biggest trading bloc and top trading ...

Were the US to impose large and lasting tariffs on its imports from the EU, the effect on the euro area (EA) would be substantial and far-reaching. We expect the direct impact to be inflationary in the US and contractionary on EA aggregate demand and output. The indirect impact through an appreciation of the dollar (partly already occurred) tends to transfer inflation from the US to Europe. The ECB should be mindful that both deflationary and inflationary influences may ensue, and be ready to adjust ...

On 6 December 2024, the European Union (EU) and the four founding members of Mercosur 鈥� Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay 鈥� reached a political agreement on a free trade agreement that would form part of a wider Partnership Agreement including political dialogue and cooperation. The 2024 text of the trade pillar seeks to adjust an earlier political agreement of 28 June 2019 to EU demands for Mercosur to make stronger sustainability commitments, notably in respect to the Paris Agreement, and ...

This paper examines the impact of US protectionist trade policies on the euro area economy, focusing on macroeconomic and financial repercussions. While direct tariff effects are mitigated by exchange rate adjustments and ECB policies, broader risks arise from global trade disruptions and financial contagion. Increased risk premia on US bonds elevate European financing costs, posing fiscal challenges. We highlight the importance of trade diversification, innovation incentives, and prudent monetary ...

Since the adoption of the Memorandum of Understanding on regulatory cooperation, the European Union and the United Kingdom have organised three meetings for dialogue and cooperation on financial services regulation. The meetings focus on macroeconomic developments, banking and anti-money laundering, capital markets, and digital and sustainable finance.